Like just about everybody else in the country, I'm picking Winthrop over Arkansas-Pine Bluff in tonight's play-in game. This means you should probably bet on A-PB tonight, because I generally get the play-in game wrong.
A quick note on the NCAA tournament: Do not expand the tournament to 96 teams. The only reason top programs/coaches say they are in favor of this is because they want to make their non-conference regular season schedule even easier than the joke that it already is. In a 96 team format, teams such as Virginia Tech would get into the tournament even though they played nobody (except Temple, who they lost to)prior to conference play starting in January. Keeping Virginia Tech out of the tournament because of its lame non-conference schedule is possibly the only thing that the selection committee got right this year.
Quick thoughts on the regions:
Midwest: At first I thought the East was more stacked, but Mason corrected me and told me to look again. This region is insane, even though it is supposed to be the least insane since the overall #1, Kansas is represented in this region. This team has the best #1 seed, Kansas, the best #2 seed Ohio State (who also has the most dangerous tournament player in Evan Turner), and the hottest #3 seed in Georgetown. An argument could be made for Maryland being the best #4 seed since they have a player similar to Turner who can take over a game at any time in Greivis Vasquez, but I like Wisconsin a little better just because coach Bo Ryan preaches defense and he has Aston, PA roots, and Vanderbilt is also solid in the West. Michigan State had a down year and ended up as a #5 seed, but coach Tom Izzo doesn't get going until March anyway. The #6 seed is one of two teams that beat Kansas this year. The other? Oklahoma State who is the #7 seed. That's messed up. Brutal region. The winner of this region should be the national champion.
My pick for the final four: Ohio State.
East: Kentucky is the second best team in the country and this region's #1. This region should be the second easiest, but instead it is the second most stacked. It has the toughest 8/9 game in Wake Forest/Texas, and if Texas advances it has a good chance at knocking Kentucky out in round 2. I'm pretty sure Texas was #1 in the country about six weeks ago. This region has the country's most pissed off team in West Virginia who should ride their Big East tournament win pretty far. I also like Temple in this region, but they got screwed with their seeding as a 5, and they play the tournament's toughest #12 (Cornell), and then they play Aston, PA's pride and joy in a potential Round 2 match-up against Wisconsin. I have Temple in the Sweet 16, but then running out of gas against John Wall and Kentucky in the Regionals.
My pick for the final four: Kentucky
West: Syracuse, who I picked to win it all...although I pick them to win it all in the years they aren't even in the tournament, are in trouble if Arinze Onuaku is hurt. He hurt his leg in the Big East tournament game vs. Georgetown. I'm not sure the status of his leg as my phone calls to him have gone unreturned. This has been the best regular season Syracuse has had in this decade and it would be nice to cap it off with a nice tourney run, but I think the 7 man rotation that Boeheim uses is going to be a little gassed. I wouldn't even count Vermont out in round 1 as Syracuse has the wonderful ability to play to the level of their opponent at all times (reference pre-season loss to Division II Le Moyne in a game they played full strength). The week 2 matchup vs either Florida State or Gonzaga is also difficult. The rest of the region confuses me. Kansas State, Pittsburgh (one of 3 teams to beat Syracuse this year), Vanderbilt, and Butler (should have been higher) are a solid 2,3,4, and 5, but this region is not nearly as tough as it should be, since Syracuse was the fourth #1.
My pick for the final four: Syracuse
South: This is the WTF region. It is so incredibly horrible, I am considering a boycott. Duke deserves a #1 and they are a strange Duke team since they have a toughness that should gear them for a deeper tournament run than has been the case in years past. They will lose to Louisville in Round 2 though. Duke's year was strange as they finally scheduled some tough non-conference games, including games against Wisconsin, Georgetown, and UConn which they lost two of. Once Duke loses to Louisville it's anybody's region to win. Texas A&M is a real good 5, and the #7 Richmond vs. #10 Saint Mary's game is awesome. Villanova should not have been a #2. That isn't a big deal though. What is a big deal is why they are in this region. Ohio State should have been the #2 in this region and Georgetown should have been the #3. Purdue is a literally hurting #4 as their best player has been out for a couple of weeks. Duke getting this region is the equivalent of David Stern bending the Knicks envelope in the Ewing draft lottery. My pick for the final four is Notre Dame who I absolutely hate, but they win by default. I hate Notre Dame. Luke Harangody is my least favorite player on the planet. I see him coming up big though and ND will continue its end of the season roll in beating Old Dominion, Baylor, Villanova, Texas A&M before falling to Kentucky in the semi-finals. Compare those teams with the Ohio State's potential road: Georgia Tech, Georgetown, Kansas. Weird. My final four pick: Notre Dame
Chances of being correct: 50%
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